Biodynamic SolutionsĪre there any solutions to this pressing dilemma? I would argue that there are, but it’ll require rapid response and adaptation from farmers everywhere. The rest will be forced to charge more for their commodities, resulting in skyrocketing food prices. For some farmers, that will be a death knell that causes them to go out of business. 9Įxperts are now predicting fertilizer prices may double as a result of Russia’s ban on fertilizer exports. Russia also exports 48% of the global ammonium nitrate, and combined with Ukraine, they export 28% of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium fertilizers. Together, Russia and Belarus provide nearly 40% of the global exports of potash, a key fertilizer ingredient. We’ve exploded that system, and the cost is going to be extreme economic pain.” Serious Fertilizer Shortage Looms “This crisis is beyond the normal ability to shuffle supplies around. Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist and professor in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois told Wired magazine: 8 Farmers are struggling over whether to plant for next season - if they can even obtain seeds and fertilizer, for which supplies look uncertain …Īnalysts worry that the countries that buy the most wheat from Ukraine - predominantly in Africa and the Middle East - will have the hardest time paying as prices rise.” This year’s wheat, which will be ready in July, can’t be harvested if there’s no fuel for combines and no labor to run them. (Plus, while those crops sit in bins, destruction of the country’s power grid takes out the temperature controls and ventilation that keep them from spoiling.) “Goods that have already been harvested - last autumn’s corn, for instance - can’t be transported out of the country ports and shipping routes are closed down, and international trading companies have ceased operations for safety. 6Īs reported by Wired, the current food crisis in Ukraine is made up of several components, and the effects will have a worldwide rippling effect, thanks to our dependency on global trade: 7 At the same time, the Ukrainian government has decided to ban all export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and cattle, to ensure food safety for its own people, while Russia has banned exports of fertilizer. Department of Agriculture’s projections, wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine will be reduced by more than 7 million metric tons in 2022. Russia is also a major exporter of food, and together with Ukraine, the two countries account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, nearly 20% of the world’s corn and more than 80% of the sunflower oil. Ukraine is known as “the bread basket” of Europe, responsible for producing and exporting 12% of all food calories traded on the international market. That said, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is certainly making a bad problem worse. 4 Compounding Crises Threaten Global Food Productivity China, for example, has reported it expects the lowest harvest yields in history this year, thanks to serious flooding of its farmland in the fall of 2021. The climate has also been uncooperative, causing poor harvests around the world. The long-term answer lies in regenerative biodynamic farming, which does not use any chemical inputs. Experts are now predicting fertilizer prices may double as a result of Russia’s ban on fertilizer exports Ukraine has ceased exports of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and cattle, and Russia has banned exports of fertilizer Governments’ COVID responses have also wreaked havoc with global supply chains, causing disruptions that continue to this day
Inflation was already ramping up well before Russia went into Ukraine, thanks to the uncontrolled printing of fiat currencies that occurred in response to the COVID pandemic. In the U.S., food prices rose 9% in 2021, and are predicted to rise another 4.5% to 5% in the next 12 months On average, food prices were one-third higher than in March 2021. The global food price index hit its highest recorded level in March 2022, rising 12.6% in a single month.
Food shortages and skyrocketing food prices now appear inevitable.
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